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Writer's pictureDr Suriyah Bi

Two-child benefit cap debate incomplete without race and ethnicity data


Image credit: University of Liverpool


Only last month alarm bells were being rung about the implication of falling birth rates for the economy, and only four days ago were there talks about access to IVF through the NHS operating on a postcode lottery system. Why then, one may ask, is there a contradictory policy capping child benefits at two children? Surely in years to come, such a policy only serves to exacerbate falling birth rates, which means problems for an ageing population and a care industry already at breaking point.

 

While the current debates on the two-child benefit cap are focused on the 330,000 children being pulled out of poverty, and rightly so, this is not the only aspect of we ought to consider with regards to the upholding of the policy. Only yesterday, the Prime Minister suspended the whip from seven MPs for voting with the SNP amendment to scrap the policy, which is significant given the election was only three week ago.


"...such a policy only serves to exacerbate falling birth rates, which means problems for an ageing population and a care industry already at breaking point."

If we examine recent birth rates by ethnic group we gain further insight into the policy’s impact, and thus, an indication as to why a Conservative government policy has been so strongly defended by a Labour government.

 

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) demonstrates that in 2022, 30.3% of all live births in England and Wales were to non-UK-born women, up from 28.8% of all live births in 2021, the highest proportion of live births to non-UK-born women seen since records began. The ethnic groups showcasing higher birth rates included Indian, Pakistani, Polish, Bangladeshi, Nigerian, and Somali.

 

The ONS 2022 data particular points to India as the most common country of birth for non-UK born mothers, and as the most common country of birth for non-UK born fathers.  In London, two-thirds of babies were born to parents where either one or both parents were born outside of the UK.


Data from the ONS 2022.

 

"...the government is perpetuating systematic and institutional racism, as it is exacerbating negative life outcomes for racialised and marginalised groups..."

Taking a look at data on poverty, we find that Pakistani and Bangladeshi households are more likely to be faced with poverty. A 2024 House of Commons report demonstrated 56% of Bangladeshi households were in poverty, 48% of Pakistani households, 40% of Black British households, and 35% of any other Asian background households we experiencing poverty.

 

Specifically concerning child poverty and ethnicity, the data is further heightened. Here, 67% of Bangladeshi children, 58% of Pakistani children, 47% of Asian British children, and 45% of Black British children, experience poverty.


Data from House of Commons 2024.


The claims that scrapping the two-child benefit cap would lift around 330,000 children out of poverty then, is likely to be largely comprised of Black, Ethnic, and Asian children. By voting against the amendment, the government is perpetuating systematic and institutional racism, as it is exacerbating negative life outcomes for racialised and marginalised groups further, through an added lens of poverty.


We also cannot overlook the right wing political rhetoric concerning the ‘great replacement theory’, that the White British population will be replaced by non-white groups, which is often present in the right wing populist rhetoric. Indeed, the census data has been politicised by the likes of Nigel Farage, who in 2022 claimed that London, Manchester, and Birmingham are now minority white cities.


"...the underbelly of the policy seems to be oriented to satisfy those who fear whiteness is in decline."

It is therefore likely that the lack of government support for more than two children, will particularly suppress the already disadvantaged in society from having more than two children. Since the data shows these groups are more likely to be Black, Asian, and Ethnic groups, it is clear the two-child benefit cap will specifically impact fertility rates in ethnic and racial groups, leading them to have fewer children.


The policy perpetuates racism through the State, harming the most vulnerable in society while at the same time, the underbelly of the policy seems to be oriented to satisfy those who fear whiteness is in decline.


Bibliography





Francis-Device, B. 2024. Poverty in the UK: Statistics. House of Commons Library.



Nargund. G. 2024. Price caps could help end IVF postcode lottery. The Guardian.


ONS. 2023. Births by parents' country of birth, England and Wales: 2022. Office for National Statistics.


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